I haven’t posted anything in a while because every time I’m about to write an update, a new piece of pretty big news develops that potentially shifts the picture. So here’s a high level overview of my thoughts from the past month. There’s a debate going on right now if the current slowdown will…
Unsurprisingly, the Fed finally got the message from the markets and pulled a hard 180 last month. In a very short six weeks, they went from “balance sheet runoff on autopilot and more rate increases to come in 2019” to “we’re pausing rate increases and we’ll be flexible with the balance sheet.” Risk assets have…
Here’s my brain dump on the recent market action and how I’m approaching things: Since stocks started to slide in October, I’ve been seeing signals that only appear during bear markets so I’ve been operating under that assumption by reducing exposure to higher risk assets (stocks, corporate bonds, etc.) on bounces. We’re now…
I’ve been seeing warning signals since the spring that we’re in the later stages of this economic cycle so I wanted to post an update to illustrate. One thing to mention is that cycles tend to move very slowly which can be a double-edged sword. It’s nice because you can typically read the tea leaves…
The Federal Reserve raised the target range for the effective federal funds rates (EFF) again last week, now up to a range of 1.75% – 2.00%. They also raised the rate they pay banks interest on excess reserves (IOER) by 0.20%. With this bump, I wanted to see the print for the average bank prime…
Macro changes occur at a glacial speed but these are typically the most important metrics to track. This is separating the signal (macro shifts, leading data points, etc.) from the noise (CNBC). Warning Signals from the Yield Curve One of the most basic yet crucial metrics is the yield curve, which has certainly received a…
With stocks continuing to climb higher I’ve been a lot less active in terms of buying, especially on the Growth side of portfolios. However, there are some attractive opportunities popping up in the Income arena due to rising short and intermediate term bond yields. The yield curve is a line that measures yields at each…
Wednesday was new Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s first meeting at the helm. Stocks sold off pretty hard after the announcement but rebounded yesterday. Neither action was very surprising; stocks are still quite over-extended and investors seem to have a quick trigger finger looking for any reason to sell and take profits. At the same…