I’m going to try to keep this post a little shorter by not getting too deep into the explanations but I wanted to post an update with my thoughts based on what I’m seeing. Given the weakening economic backdrop, the risk across the board is probably at its highest point right now since 2007/08. The…
Unfortunately the employment numbers lately have been disappointing and the job openings number this morning was very worrying, down 14% on a year-over-year basis. Initial and Continuing Unemployment claims have also been rising on a year-over-year basis. So we have unemployment starting to tick higher and hiring slowing – two things seen at the…
I’ve been seeing warning signals since the spring that we’re in the later stages of this economic cycle so I wanted to post an update to illustrate. One thing to mention is that cycles tend to move very slowly which can be a double-edged sword. It’s nice because you can typically read the tea leaves…
Why has the economy been stagnant since 2008? Not the stock market…the real economy: real growth, higher wages, etc. Because we never let the system clear itself of waste, excess, inefficiency and poor investment decisions. I think a good analogy to explain this concept is to think of the economy like a balloon. In order…