Unsurprisingly, the Fed finally got the message from the markets and pulled a hard 180 last month. In a very short six weeks, they went from “balance sheet runoff on autopilot and more rate increases to come in 2019” to “we’re pausing rate increases and we’ll be flexible with the balance sheet.” Risk assets have…
Here’s my brain dump on the recent market action and how I’m approaching things: Since stocks started to slide in October, I’ve been seeing signals that only appear during bear markets so I’ve been operating under that assumption by reducing exposure to higher risk assets (stocks, corporate bonds, etc.) on bounces. We’re now…
Macro changes occur at a glacial speed but these are typically the most important metrics to track. This is separating the signal (macro shifts, leading data points, etc.) from the noise (CNBC). Warning Signals from the Yield Curve One of the most basic yet crucial metrics is the yield curve, which has certainly received a…