Two words – “The Fed.” The two primary goals of the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing efforts over the past few years were to inflate asset prices (stocks, real estate, etc.) and lower interest rates. They call this the “wealth effect.” In theory, they think that higher asset prices will increase confidence, which will increase spending, business…
Signs of deflation have been popping up all over global asset markets for the past year, ever since the US dollar broke-out on its tear higher. US dollar index – 2 years But this doesn’t even tell the whole story. The US dollar index represents the value of the US dollar against a basket…
It seems like the only thing I hear in the financial media these days is talk about when the Fed will raise interest rates but I think people are missing the forest for the trees. The US dollar continues to surge higher and by letting it rise, effectively the Fed is already tightening. I don’t…
When we look back, I believe history will say the seeds of the next crisis were planted in the fall of 2014. I thought it was going to be Europe that started the party, but instead Japan raised their hand and volunteered by starting the world’s next currency war – although you’ll never hear a…
I mentioned a few weeks ago that we could be in the early innings of a bull market in the US dollar. Since the Great Recession in 2008-09, it seems like fewer and fewer assets are trading freely off of their own fundamentals with everything moving together against the US dollar. Lately, it’s been US…
The Emerging Markets were all the buzz this week, with India, Turkey and South Africa raising interest rates in an attempt to slow capital outflows. Since the 2008 crash, Emerging Market (EM) stocks have not been the same for US investors, significantly underperforming developed market stocks. Unfortunately I think they’re going to remain under pressure…
I lightened up on Emerging Markets (EM) a little this week. Many of the EM markets took off to the upside after Bernanke announced no change to the current Quantitative Easing program. However, I see the current rally as just another cyclical blip that will quickly lose steam. At the heart of the issue remains…