This morning’s market reactions to the unexpected jobs number gave me even more conviction that the current capital trends are in place. Gold, bonds and currencies all moved in anticipation of further Fed easing, while stocks did not. For a while now, bad news has been good news for stocks because it has meant continued/more…
Stocks
We’re sitting right under the line in the sand. It will be a good sign if the S&P 500 can break above the last pivot high on June 18th of 1654.19. Today’s high was…1654.18!! The Dow Industrial Average also fell short by 20 points of clearing. Until we clear these levels the short-term correction is…
Stocks
We’ve had some choppy days lately but as I said last week, so far this has been a textbook correction for stocks. The S&P 500 is still fairly overbought in the long-term, trading near the high-end of this 3-year price channel. S&P 500 – 8 years (weekly) Looking a little closer, we haven’t seen enough…
Market Update: Everything Takes a Slide
Literally every asset class (but US dollars) has been falling since yesterday’s FOMC announcement. This shows how far things have been driven by excess liquidity – not fundamentals. In my humble opinion, the US bond market is overreacting to the announcement and has this one wrong, creating an opportunity. I think intermediate bonds offer nice…
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets have been outright crushed this year. This is part of the capital flows exiting these hot economies as fear of the Fed cutting back on QE grows. It’s important to be patient when investing in any asset class, but it’s double important when it comes to the Emerging Markets. These economies/companies are very…
New Stock Buys
As the stock market continues higher, it’s becoming harder and harder to find new companies to buy at prices I consider favorable. But every now and then a stock jumps off the screen as an opportunity you just can’t pass up! My most recent addition to growth-oriented portfolios is a company called Catamaran. They offer…
Money Talks
I’ve talked about the importance of following capital flows in the past. It’s not just watching where the money is flowing, but the interrelationships between investment classes that explains why shifts are occurring and gives clues about what to expect moving forward. This ever-changing nature of the markets is what I find so fascinating. For…
Thoughts of the Week
Ags The USDA releases their world supply and demand outlook today for all agricultural commodities. We generally see big price swings off this release. We’re also in the middle of planting season for most of the US. It’s interesting that my concerns of soil being too dry and not holding enough nutrients flipped to where…