It seems like the only thing I hear in the financial media these days is talk about when the Fed will raise interest rates but I think people are missing the forest for the trees. The US dollar continues to surge higher and by letting it rise, effectively the Fed is already tightening. I don’t…
Why the Volatility is only just Beginning
Tomorrow morning the European Central Bank (ECB) will make an announcement on monetary policy and will most likely announce the beginning of their own Quantitative Easing. I was a bit skeptical of this until last week when the European Court of Justice made it now legal for the ECB to engage in Quantitative Easing and…
New Position in Google
I began a position in Google earlier this week when it dipped under $525 and added to it this morning under $500. If it drops another 5%, I’ll buy more. It’s not as cheap as I typically like to see when buying stock in a new company but relatively speaking it’s one of the cheaper…
S&P 500: Early Warning Signals Beginning to Flash
Two of the best ways to track investor’s sentiment toward risk are to track the Volatility Index (VIX) relative to stocks and high yield bonds relative to stocks – and both have been flashing “warning” signs since early July. These are important to watch because stocks are usually the last asset class to react to…
On the Lookout for Some Holiday Deals & New Year Trend Changes
The end of the year tends to bring some odd movements in the markets. These can occur for a handful of reasons but most are driven by funds with short-term incentive policies and year-end bonuses. Fortunately, their short-sighted foolishness can be our gain since we’re in the position of investing for the long-term. Many funds…
Resolution to the Allergan Deal
We finally have a resolution to the takeover of Allergan and boy did we benefit as shareholders. After a long battle against Bill Ackman and Valeant Pharmaceuticals that began with a takeover offer in April, Allergan has decided to accept a “friendly” takeover offer from Actavis for $219/share valued at $66 billion. I was initially…
Why there is Confusion in the Markets Right Now
Stocks have had a pretty bumpy ride over the last three weeks, with the S&P 500 falling exactly 10% from the September 19th high. The S&P 500 cash index, which is what you see quoted on TV and in the paper, fell almost 9.9% but the S&P 500 futures fell exactly 10.0% and turned on…
Is a Falling Stock Market Time to Sell or Buy?
The answer is “Yes.” I had a great math teacher in high school. The course was Algebra 3/Trigonometry. After teaching a lesson he would often say: “Is it algebra 3 or trigonometry?… Yes.” Most people will talk about stocks as a whole and ask questions like “should I be buying (or selling) stocks right now?”…