When we look back, I believe history will say the seeds of the next crisis were planted in the fall of 2014. I thought it was going to be Europe that started the party, but instead Japan raised their hand and volunteered by starting the world’s next currency war – although you’ll never hear a…
What I’m Most Concerned About Right Now – Pain Ahead for the Emerging Markets
I mentioned a few weeks ago that we could be in the early innings of a bull market in the US dollar. Since the Great Recession in 2008-09, it seems like fewer and fewer assets are trading freely off of their own fundamentals with everything moving together against the US dollar. Lately, it’s been US…
Is a Falling Stock Market Time to Sell or Buy?
The answer is “Yes.” I had a great math teacher in high school. The course was Algebra 3/Trigonometry. After teaching a lesson he would often say: “Is it algebra 3 or trigonometry?… Yes.” Most people will talk about stocks as a whole and ask questions like “should I be buying (or selling) stocks right now?”…
How Actively Managed Mutual Funds are Scoring
Earlier this month, S&P Dow Jones Indices released their semi-annual report on mutual funds which compares actively managed funds to index funds. It’s called the SPIVA report, which stands for S&P Index vs. Active management, and the results, once again, don’t bode well for actively managed mutual funds. I’ve never been a big fan of…
The Difference between Individual Bonds & Bond Funds
I received a question after my last post regarding bonds and just to clarify, I was referring to owning individual bonds. The person that asked the question, like many investors, has exposure to bonds in his portfolio via bond funds which can be a mutual fund, exchange traded fund (ETF) or closed-end fund, so I…
Stocks Looking Shaky Again
This morning the European Central Bank announced they’ll be joining the fun and adding their own Quantitative Easing. The Euro currency, which had already been falling since early May, cratered on the news. This should be “good news” for stocks. European stocks rallied on the announcement and the US market seemed poised for a positive…
How to Find the Best Long Term Investments
I’m just about finished with an absolutely fantastic book by William Thorndike called The Outsiders: Eight Unconventional CEO’s and Their Radically Rational Blueprint for Success. I highly recommend this book to anyone that runs their own company, manages people at work or makes investment decisions in stocks (for themselves or others). I often say that…
Recent Portfolio Updates
I’ve made a few position changes lately, mainly on the “income” side: I’ve been reducing exposure to tobacco stocks over the past few months and have now totally sold the rest of Altria (MO). Tobacco stocks tend to be high yielders, like telecom and utilities, making the dividend payout, sustainability and growth rate very important…