We’re soon going to find out where the Fed’s pain point lies. Treasury yields on the long end of the curve have been relentlessly pushing higher this year with the 10-year treasury pushing past 1.5%, all while pressures within the plumbing of the money markets and repo are pushing into negative territory. Quite the mix…
I’m going to try to keep this post a little shorter by not getting too deep into the explanations but I wanted to post an update with my thoughts based on what I’m seeing. Given the weakening economic backdrop, the risk across the board is probably at its highest point right now since 2007/08. The…
This post will be an all encompassing update of things that have caught my eye over the past month. The ECB, the IMF & Christine Lagarde Christine Lagarde, the head of the IMF, was selected to be the next president of the European Central Bank (ECB) and secured the backing of the European Parliament…
Last week the Fed cuts interest rates for the first time since the GFC a decade ago and the market’s response was pretty interesting. After referencing the 1995/96 one-and-done cut that prolonged the 90’s expansion all summer, I think they were hoping that they could get away with one cut as “insurance” that would ease…
For most of this spring, I’ve been telling clients that I’ve been in “wait and see” mode. The US dollar, bonds and stocks have all been rallying this year, and while that can happen in the short-term, the dynamics of the market say that can’t last in the long run. Basically, 1 of the 3…
Two things have jumped out at me over the past few weeks that have larger investment implications. First, the number of large IPOs (namely various tech companies) and second, some new messages from the Fed. I’ll touch on the Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) first. A slew of pretty large tech companies have been racing to…
If you don’t own gold, you know neither history nor economics. -Ray Dalio I haven’t written anything in a little while because, well, there hasn’t been a whole lot going on to write about. We have had the usual Fed go full-panic-dove-mode, we’ve reportedly made progress on a trade deal with China about 28 times…
Unsurprisingly, the Fed finally got the message from the markets and pulled a hard 180 last month. In a very short six weeks, they went from “balance sheet runoff on autopilot and more rate increases to come in 2019” to “we’re pausing rate increases and we’ll be flexible with the balance sheet.” Risk assets have…