Things are heating up between Greece and the rest of Europe and time is quickly running out without a solution. There are really only two solutions: Greece either 1) leaves the Eurozone and returns to the drachma which will rapidly lose value as they once again have the ability print as much as they want,…
Why the Volatility is only just Beginning
Tomorrow morning the European Central Bank (ECB) will make an announcement on monetary policy and will most likely announce the beginning of their own Quantitative Easing. I was a bit skeptical of this until last week when the European Court of Justice made it now legal for the ECB to engage in Quantitative Easing and…
Welcome to a World of Deflation
Here’s a chart to illustrate what happens during deflationary economic pressures, as we’re seeing right now (click to see a larger image): In order from top to bottom: Long-term Treasury Bonds (orange), US dollar (black), Emerging Markets (brown), Euro (Green), Yen (blue), Energy/oil (purple) – last 9 months Too much debt, not enough demand (poor…
New Position in Google
I began a position in Google earlier this week when it dipped under $525 and added to it this morning under $500. If it drops another 5%, I’ll buy more. It’s not as cheap as I typically like to see when buying stock in a new company but relatively speaking it’s one of the cheaper…
S&P 500: Early Warning Signals Beginning to Flash
Two of the best ways to track investor’s sentiment toward risk are to track the Volatility Index (VIX) relative to stocks and high yield bonds relative to stocks – and both have been flashing “warning” signs since early July. These are important to watch because stocks are usually the last asset class to react to…
On the Lookout for Some Holiday Deals & New Year Trend Changes
The end of the year tends to bring some odd movements in the markets. These can occur for a handful of reasons but most are driven by funds with short-term incentive policies and year-end bonuses. Fortunately, their short-sighted foolishness can be our gain since we’re in the position of investing for the long-term. Many funds…
Buckle Up! Why it’s About to Become a Wild Ride!
When we look back, I believe history will say the seeds of the next crisis were planted in the fall of 2014. I thought it was going to be Europe that started the party, but instead Japan raised their hand and volunteered by starting the world’s next currency war – although you’ll never hear a…
Resolution to the Allergan Deal
We finally have a resolution to the takeover of Allergan and boy did we benefit as shareholders. After a long battle against Bill Ackman and Valeant Pharmaceuticals that began with a takeover offer in April, Allergan has decided to accept a “friendly” takeover offer from Actavis for $219/share valued at $66 billion. I was initially…