Technical Analysis is the study of charts, chart patterns and indicators. Purely fundamental investors who study balance sheets and cash flow statements think it’s a complete waste of time whereas chart technicians think it’s all that matters. I say, why not be well versed in both? I’ve found it to be extremely valuable in helping to assess things like:
- New trends, existing trend channels and change in trends
- The strength of a move and when it’s starting to lose momentum
- Timing entry and exit points
I’m a visual learner and I always start with charts. For me, it’s the quickest way to see how a particular market or asset is evolving and behaving. There is a lot of valuable information in a chart if you know where to look.
One of the first indicators people tend to learn about is the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This indicator is available for free on just about any and every website that offers charting. The RSI measures the speed and change of price movements over a given period of time (the default look back period is the last 14 bars).
And one of the most basic yet important principles you learn when studying technical analysis is to look for divergences between the price of an asset and an indicator. For example, if the price of a stock is making a new high but the RSI shows a lower high than the previous peak, this is a divergence that indicates the stock is losing momentum and susceptible to a drop.
I bring this up because I’m seeing a lot of divergences on long-term (monthly) charts of US stocks. International and Emerging Markets are showing fresh strength off the weakness in the USD though.
Here are some past examples to show you how powerful this simple signal can be:
Dow Jones Industrial Average – 1929
Dow Jones Industrial Average – 1945 to 1968
Dow Jones Industrial Average – 1987 (black Monday)
Dow Jones Industrial Average – 1999 & 2007
Interestingly, I’m not seeing a divergence in the Dow or S&P 500 today.
Dow Jones Industrial Average – Today
But I am seeing it in the Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 (small caps) and NYSE Composite:
Dow Jones Transportation Average
Dow Jones Utility Average
Nasdaq 100
Russell 2000
NYSE Composite
I’m also seeing it in some of the bigger names that have been leading this bull market, including some big Dow components:
Apple (AAPL) – long divergence, Dow component
Home Depot (HD) – Dow component
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) – Dow component
Alphabet/Google (GOOGL)
Amazon (AMZN)
Lockheed Martin (LMT)
Mastercard (MA)
Starbucks (SBUX)
Now, there are a couple important things to note. As you probably noticed, these divergences can last for a few years so please don’t think I’m calling a top in the market today. It’s more of a cautionary warning. Tops tend to be long, drawn out processes, whereas bottoms are very quick and will snap back. I’ve noticed these were in the making for months now but it wasn’t until Janet Yellen and her Central Banking comrades starting warning about elevated valuations last month that I decided to post this.
The real question is how you go about handling your investments when you see signals like this. A lot of these signals are still “active,” meaning it could be invalidated if the stock/market continues to rally. However, it’s never confirmed until an actual top is put in which might be too late. The way I go about managing something like this is to take some exposure off the table in anticipation, as I did a few weeks back by taking gains in a lot of tech stocks, and then watch the 10 month EMA as an exit signal (the red line following price in all the charts). It tends to be the first harbinger to take action once we close a month below it. This way you can ride the trend as long as it lasts.
Thanks for following!
-Nick