I use a few different risk management systems to help in determining when to reduce exposure to higher risk investments like stocks and high yield bonds. These take into consideration economic data, market data (i.e. bond spreads, market breadth, etc.) and technical charting for trend strength. Monday was the last day of October and the weak close for the month indicated I reduce exposure to stocks a little. Fortunately bond yields have been creeping higher lately so it makes for an easy decision of where to invest the money but, as always, I’ll be taking my time by buying in increments on days where bonds are trading lower.
I trimmed a couple positions that were overweight (some winners I had let run this year) and closed most of the cash-secured put options we still had open. Selling puts has worked well all year. All of the puts had expiration dates ranging from December to March but we had already realized most of the profit so I was happy to take these off. I’ll look to reset by selling new put options at either lower strike prices (less risk) or a higher return potential.
I actually think we’re setting up for a decent bounce in the very short term – probably a “relief rally” following the election. The S&P 500 closed lower 8 days in a row after Thursday’s drop which is very rare (currently up as of Friday afternoon so we’ll see if we can break the streak). Breadth data and implied volatility readings are both indicative of a short-term bottom but obviously anything can happen!
Historically, November to April has been the strongest 6 month period for stocks. This seasonal effect goes all the back to the 1800’s when the economy was much more agrarian and the business cycle was tied to when farmers would borrow money (before the planting season) and repay loans (after the harvest). For some reason, these seasonal effects have stuck around leading traders to be bullish around November and bearish around the end of April. However, I’ve been seeing pretty consistent selling pressure across the board going all the way back to the beginning of September so we’ll have to wait and see if a new uptrend takes hold following the election or if we’re at the start of a more pronounced pullback. Either way, we should have our answer very soon.
Have a great weekend and thanks for following!
-Nick