Here are some recent charts from Bloomberg on demographics and health trends. Following the demographics of various countries is one of the best ways to get a sense of long-term trends. The first shows the number of children under age 5 vs people age 65 and above. For the first time ever, seniors are about to pass toddlers. Something interesting to think about…
The next 3 charts highlight global weight gains and the percentage of men and women that are underweight vs. obese. Underweight can be a problem and lead to malnutrition so it’s good to see it trend lower but obesity often leads to far more health issues. Obesity is usually determined by your Body Mass Index (BMI), which is a very general way to classify a person – for example, a person with a lot of muscle mass might have a high BMI and be considered obese even though they are not – so it has some obvious limitations, but I think the takeaway is that there is a pretty clear trend.
People have been optimistic about healthcare related companies for over a decade now with aging populations in most of the developed world. This is a clear tailwind that isn’t going to end anytime soon but I think the key will be finding the companies that are able to improve health trends while lowering the cost of healthcare before these rising costs become even more out of control. I’ve been researching a company that is focusing on doing just that and will write a post about them if we pick up the stock. It’s pretty volatile and could easily move lower so I chose to sell put options underneath the stock instead of jumping right in, for the time being.
Lastly, here’s a link to the latest Thoughts from the Frontline email from John Mauldin. It’s a free weekly newsletter that is chock-full of great information and I recommend subscribing if you’re interested in following big picture economic and investment trends. This email discusses many of the long-term trends that have led to the slowdown in economic growth over the past couple decades. A lot of good info on demographics, unemployment, participation ratios, etc. He also mentions why low interest rates are more likely hurting economic growth than aiding it. An interesting contrary view to the general economic theory, which I tend to agree with.
Thanks for following!
-Nick