I rushed to get yesterday’s post out and realized afterwards that I didn’t update you on what I was doing with the position. In short, we’re moving on to greener pastures.
This story offers some good investment lessons so I’ll provide a few more details. Despite my concerns, I chose to stick with Kinder Morgan because of the company’s founder, Richard Kinder. He was a pioneer in the pipeline industry with the MLP structure and in building Kinder Morgan to one of the top pipeline companies in the country. He’s done such a great job that he’s now a billionaire that owns over 10% of the outstanding stock. I like companies where management and the executive team own a lot of stock because it aligns their interests with shareholders. Richard Kinder had done a really great job to this point and had made shareholders a lot of money (including those clients that have been with me for a while now. We’ve pretty much owned Kinder Morgan from day 1). I was basically putting my trust in him to take the company in the right direction based on his track record. Unfortunately, I don’t believe that he is doing so, although to be fair, he’s not as involved in running the company like he used to be.
I disagree with the decision to focus on expanding the company (at this time). The energy industry is going through some tough times and we’ve haven’t seen the worst of it by a long shot. It all comes back to the amount of debt that Kinder Morgan currently has. When you have debt, you are at the mercy of your creditors. You have very little flexibility and thus no ability to capitalize on what is likely to be a lot of asset fire-sales in the energy industry. Additionally, if there are asset write-downs by other energy companies, it will affect the asset side of Kinder Morgan’s balance sheet, regardless of whether or not they’re taking write downs (they’ll eventually be forced to do so even if they delay). It’s similar to your house being worth less because there are 4 new foreclosures on your street. And guess what – the debt doesn’t get written down with the asset value which means you’re equity is being withered away. That’s a problem when you’re already mortgaged to the brim with debt.
Just look at the recent news from Anglo American and Freeport McMoran this week. These are not simply a coincidence. Anglo American is selling off assets (mines) and cutting their workforce by over 60%! Freeport McMoran just shut down a mine, is cutting capital expenditures and completely suspended the dividend. We’re probably going to see a wave of companies in the energy industry trying to shrink costs and debt burdens by selling assets, just like we’re seeing with the miners. The real question is whether anyone will be able to buy them, and at what price?
I think Kinder Morgan should be the pioneer again, but this time through the exit by selling their lowest return assets to pay down debt before it’s too late. Otherwise, you’ll see the value of the equity (stock) continue to erode like all of the miners (see below). This is going to be a VERY long haul for the company and I don’t see dividend increases any time soon along the path they’ve chosen. It’s more likely that they’ll eventually drop the dividend all together. They simply have too much debt.
It looks like this cycle is only just beginning.
Anglo American – 1 year
Freeport McMoran – 5 years (the erosion of equity…)
Thanks for following!
-Nick